Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.643076 12.213630 13.910001 15.875195 18.085747 20.491986 23.306022
2025-04-27 8.369090 10.495329 12.974099 16.063970 19.797998 24.149450 29.588091
2025-05-04 7.099632 9.430450 12.284379 16.011088 20.721283 26.446262 33.897563
2025-05-11 6.043143 8.459413 11.552498 15.763434 21.301902 28.287505 37.706724
2025-05-18 5.341501 7.825590 11.129913 15.791773 22.133966 30.386302 41.846873
2025-05-25 4.823315 7.366625 10.869830 15.973863 23.130728 32.704368 46.351003
2025-06-01 4.332424 6.882008 10.510884 15.959110 23.815586 34.596182 50.334237
2025-06-08 3.876591 6.394374 10.091906 15.803482 24.259911 36.143806 53.882314
2025-06-15 3.561212 6.082481 9.893376 15.935396 25.098323 38.255804 58.292070
2025-06-22 3.365247 5.934606 9.921847 16.394889 26.426706 41.114000 63.884018
2025-06-29 3.047915 5.557251 9.559311 16.217172 26.767823 42.523993 67.400447
2025-07-06 2.642782 4.992044 8.848595 15.431170 26.107953 42.384274 68.571151
2025-07-13 2.498403 4.865869 8.850164 15.801892 27.303034 45.144893 74.311333
2025-07-20 2.352787 4.723436 8.812368 16.102535 28.399728 47.803907 80.018610
2025-07-27 2.156521 4.467753 8.556672 16.010488 28.835444 49.426020 84.150805
2025-08-03 1.958405 4.188047 8.234444 15.776195 29.010712 50.626370 87.648317
2025-08-10 1.818070 4.004828 8.068614 15.799912 29.615651 52.538506 92.358819
2025-08-17 1.712370 3.879236 7.997094 15.983714 30.499946 54.940495 97.958473
2025-08-24 1.590243 3.707758 7.824905 15.968388 31.026575 56.757587 102.649861
2025-08-31 1.462385 3.511062 7.587845 15.812873 31.287235 58.124349 106.625842
2025-09-07 1.378330 3.399287 7.506940 15.944790 32.069966 60.412107 112.245428
2025-09-14 1.335282 3.373169 7.594151 16.404549 33.476503 63.838642 119.949422
2025-09-21 1.230843 3.198520 7.365342 16.226730 33.676614 65.138505 123.989148